风浪中船舶横摇仿真与预报研究

Research on Simulation and Prediction of Ship Rolling in Ocean Waves

对船舶横摇运动进行仿真与预报研究可大大提高船舶航行安全性,更好地保障船舶各项作业的顺利进行。从频谱分析的角度对海上随机风浪进行仿真,并根据刚体平衡原理建立船舶运动方程,由此仿真船舶的横摇运动。在此基础上,针对舰船运动姿态非线性、非平稳的时域特点,运用改进AR模型的多层递阶方法和自回归方法对船舶横摇运动进行预报,结合预报误差指标进行两种预报方法的比较。预报结果表明,多层递阶方法在一定程度上提高了船舶运动姿态的预报精度和预报时间长度,可较好实现非线性预报。

Safety of ship navigation can greatly improved and each operation carried on more smoothly. Frequency spectrum analysis theory was used to simulate the random ocean waves, then ship rolling equation was built with the theory of body equilibrium, so as to make the ship rolling simulation model. Based on these foundations and a view of ship motion to the nonlinear and non-stationary trait.＇？ in time domain, AutoRegressive method and Multi-layer hierarchical method were used to predict the rolling of ships based on the data collected from the simulation model, and detailed comparisons was given with error indexes. The results indicate that the Multi-layer hi erarchical method can improve the forecast accuracy and duration to a certain extent and can make better prediction for nonlinear time series.