2012年黑龙江省玉米市场行情分析及后市展望

Analysis of Maize Market Situation in 2012 and Its Future Prospect for Heilongjiang Province

分析2012年黑龙江省玉米市场,预计2012年黑龙江省玉米产量同比增加9.1%,创历史新高;每公顷种植玉米纯收益4329.45元,较2011年减少358.20元,减幅达7.64%;2012年前3个季度,黑龙江省玉米市场收购价格持续上升,至9月达到2326.25元/t,较2012年初涨幅达14.35%,之后受季节性压力影响,玉米价格出现大幅回落,11月中旬在国家出台最低保护价收储政策后,奠定了玉米市场底部,市场价格较为平稳。展望2013年,种植面积将继续扩大,玉米增产潜力仍在,市场供需矛盾或将得以缓解,但由于存在刚性需求,对价格支撑作用还是很明显,但价格反弹空间不大。

This paper analyzed 2012 maize market situation in Heilongjiang province. Maize production of Heilongjiang province is forecast to reach a new record, rising by 9.1 percent compared to last year. Maize net income per hectare is projected at 4 329.45 RMB, down 358.20 RMB from the previous year, in other words, a decrease of 7.64 percent ; in Heilongjiang province maize purchased price had been raising during the first three quarters of 2012, reached 2 326.25 RMB per ton in September, 14.35 percent higher than the early 2012, then a large drop happened most for seasonal pressure, but became relatively stable at the end of 2012, the main reason was the government introduction of the minimum reserve price for purchasing and storage policy in mid-November which laid the bottom of the maize market. Forecasting to 2013, the acreage will continue to expand, maize yield still has increase power, maize supply and demand may be mitigated, but due to the presence of the rigid demand, the role of price support is still very evident, but no much room for prices rebounded.