2012年生猪市场分析及后市预测

Analysis of Chinese Hog Market in 2012 and Its Prospect for 2013

2011年猪肉价格创下历史新高之后,养猪户纷纷补栏,导致生猪存栏量增加,2012年春节后市场供应量一直处于饱和状态。但是终端消费低迷不振,加上进口猪肉的冲击,春节后生猪价格连续下滑4个月,跌幅明显较往年大,国家迅速启动缓解生猪市场价格周期性波动调控预案,开展冻猪肉收储,2012年下半年生猪价格稳中有升,全年呈"U"型走势。尽管饲料等养殖成本上涨趋势减缓,但产能仍然大于需求,2012前期猪价上涨的速度和幅度较快,猪价处于高位,但猪价上涨空间有限。预计2013年上半年猪肉价格趋向平稳,或会受淡季影响而轻微向下,2013年下半年则因猪肉供应减少,猪价有望反弹。

The pig farmers restocked because pork prices hit a record high in 2011, resulting in an increase in the stock of pig, after the Spring Festival market supply has been saturated in 2012. But with the terminal consumption slump and the impact of pork imports, hog price continued to decline for 4 months after the Spring Festival in 2012, the decline was less marked than previous years, so the government quickly started a plan to ease hog market price fluctuations cyclical regulation, carried out the purchasing and storage of frozen pork, then hog prices rose steadily in the second half of 2012, showed a U-shaped trend in 2012. Despite feed and other farming costs showed upward trend, the capacity still exceeded demand, the speed and magnitude of pork price increased fast in early 2012, pork price was in a high position, but the rising space of pork price was limited. Pork price is expected to tend to smooth in the first half of 2013, or may be down slightly affected by the off-season, due to the reduced supply of pork in the second half of 2013, pork price may rebound.