2012年中国农产品贸易形势分析及2013年趋势展望

Analysis of China′s Agricultural Trade in 2012 and Its Future Prospect in 2013

在世界经济低迷、全球主要农产品供给相对宽松,国内需求不断增长以及政策调控等因素的综合作用下,2012年中国粮棉油糖等大宗农产品进口量激增,全面净进口态势得到强化;果蔬水产等优势农产品出口增长乏力,部分产品甚至出现明显下滑;农产品贸易逆差大幅增加。综合考虑国内外经济走势、农产品供求状况等因素,预计未来粮棉油糖等大宗农产品全面净进口局面将持续,但进口激增态势将得到缓解,农产品出口形势将有所好转。针对新形势、新问题,必须加强对农产品贸易形势的研究和判断,及时采取对策措施,努力确保中国农产品贸易和农业产业平稳健康发展。

Under the combined effects of the world economic downturn, the relatively liberal global supply of main agricultural products, the growing domestic demand, as well as policy regulation and other factors, some bulk agricultural imports, such as grain, cotton, oil and sugar grew quickly in 2012, the comprehensive net import trend was strengthened ; while several superior agricultural exports, e.g. vegetable, fruit and aquatic product grew weakly, some of which even decreased obviously; the agricultural trade deficit increased substantially. Considering international and domestic economic situation, agricultural supply and demand conditions, and other factors, the overall net import situation of grain, cotton, oil, sugar and other bulk agricultural products are expected to continue in the future, but the surged situation of imports will be eased, however, agricultural exports situation will be improved. For the new situation and new problems, we must strengthen the research and judgment of agricultural trade situation, then make an effort to take countermeasures to ensure the stable and healthy development of China＇s agricultural trade and agricultural industry.