应用实物期权理论修正矿业权评估中的折现金流法:以山东某金矿投资项目为例

Applied real option valuation to revise DCF approach of mineral rights valuation: Taking a gold mine project of Shandong as an example

矿业权不仅是一种使用权,而且还包括对矿区环境保护和资源节约的义务;不仅包括探矿权、采矿权,也包括介于两者之间的边际矿权。对评估理论的研究表明,我国现阶段的折现率的内容与国外有很大不同,折现率值也缺乏弹性。DCF法(折现金流法)中未考虑到矿业权开发和管理的不确定性(uncertainty)和弹性(flexibility),实物期权法(ROV)能够弥补这一缺陷。对山东某金矿的矿业权价值的根据两种方法进行案例评估,进一步证明了实物期权法(ROV)是一种可行、有效和更为合理的价值评估方法,是DCF法的有价值的补充方法。

The definition of Mineral rights incorporate a right to use and the obligations of the mining environment protection and resource conservation, which are composed of exploration rights, mining rights, and marginal mineral rights. Valuation theory research indicate that the components of discounted rate in china vary from the application in foreign countries,and lack of flexibility,DCF approach does not take into account of Uncertainty and Flexibility in the process of the mining development and management. The Real Option Valuation （ROV） can compensate the defect. Case evaluation of a gold mining in Shandong further demonstrate that the Real Option Valuation is a feasible,effective and more reasonable valuation approach, also a valuable complement of DCF approach.