论驱动经济转型发展的“新三驾马车”

A Theoretical Exploration for the "New Troika" to Drive the Economic Transformation

传统宏观经济理论将消费、投资和净出口作为驱动短期经济增长的"三驾马车"。近年来,国际市场的需求萎缩、国内投资的剧烈波动以及刺激内需的政策效果难以具有持续性的影响,使得传统的"旧三驾马车"正在失灵。我们提出中长期驱动中国经济转型发展的"新三驾马车":城镇化、资本化和金融化。城镇化是个综合实体经济概念,它的质量和水平的提高有助于提升居民收入水平,并能通过基础设施建设和新产业培育来拉动投资增长,具有刺激消费和投资的双重增长潜力;资本化主要提供金融资源配置和促进转型发展的平台、机制和动力,解决经济发展的增量拉动和结构优化问题;金融化则有助于解决经济发展中的金融服务和存量保护和金融服务问题。本文通过建立"经济发展三驾马车"理论(即新三驾马车),试图为当前经济转型以及经济持久健康科学发展找到一种新的路径、机制和动力。

Consumption, investment and net exports are thought a driver of short-term economic growth ＂troika＂ by the traditional macroeconomics. In recent years, the shrinking demand in the international market, dramatic fluctuations in the domestic investment, as well as the unsustainable impact from policies to stimulate domestic demand, are making the old ＂troika＂ less and less effective. We put forward a medium-and-long term drive as the ＂new troika＂ for China＇s economic development： urbanization, capitalization and financialization. Urbanization is a comprehensive concept of the real economy, its quality and improvement help to increase residents＇ income, and it also can increase the investment through infrastructure development and the nurturing of new industries, having potentials to stimulate both the consumption and investment. The capitalization provides platforms, mechanisms and dynamics for the financial resources allocation and restructuring, and it boosts he economic development and optimizes the structure. The financialization can help to address some issues in financial services and stock protection. By establishing the new troika theory for economic development, this paper tries to provide a new route, mechanism and drive for the current economic transformation and its sustainable healthy development.