新型工业化、城镇化与农业现代化协调发展动态评价——以湖南省为例

Dynamic Assessment on Coordinated Development between New Type Industrialization,Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization: A Case of Hunan Province

通过构建工业化、城镇化和农业现代化协调发展评价指标体系,利用主成分分析法和复合系统协调发展模型,对湖南省2000-2009年的工业化、城镇化和农业现代化综合发展指数和系统协调度进行了评价。研究发现湖南省"三化"发展水平取得长足发展,但整体协调度较低,处于勉强协调发展阶段,"三化"发展形势依然严峻。因此,应不断提升新型工业化发展质量,增强城镇人口吸纳能力和产业集聚能力,建立健全的现代农业市场体系,积极筹划联系与企业的长期合作战略等。

By constructing comprehensive evaluation index system of coordinated development between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, this article evaluated the integrated development indicators and system coordination degree of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Hunan Province from 2000-2009 based on principal component analysis and composite system coordinate development model. The study reveals that the coordination degree of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization will have a rapid increase in Hunan Province. But now it is low overall. The followings are suggested. First, we should improve the quality of new type industrialization development. Second, drawing capacity of urban population and industrial clustering abilities must be strengthened. Third, effective modern agricultural market system should be established. Fourth, we must establish long-term partnership with enterprises.