地震危险性分析方法的改进及其应用

Improved Method of Seismic Hazard Assessment and Its Application

分析总结了我国历史地震等震线及历史地震活动的某些特征 ,发展了地震烈度衰减模型 ,改进了地震发生的双态泊松模型 ,对潜在震源区划分的不确定性进行了探讨 .

Based on some characteristics of historical isoseismals and historical seismicity for seismic regions in China,this paper established the seismic risk analysis based on seismic intensity which regarded as an order classified varible,developed a new kind of the two state Bayes Poisson model of earthquake occurrence,and discussed the uncertainty of the delineation of the potential seismic sources.