城市生活垃圾产生预测的核心问题探讨

Core Issues of Forecasting Municipal Solid Waste Generation

城市生活垃圾问题严重威胁城市的可持续发展,其产量和成分的预测已成为生活垃圾管理研究的热点,是生活垃圾管理体系规划、实施和优化的基础。文章总结了城市生活垃圾预测的基本框架,认为尺度、因素和方法是三大核心问题。在界定研究的时空尺度基础上,概述了国内外影响生活垃圾产生的因素,将其分成内在、社会人口学、个体、自然和政策5类,列举了回归分析、时间序列、灰色系统模型和系统动力学等预测方法的原理、特征和应用,并展望了未来研究重点和发展方向。

Municipal solid waste （MSW） problems have posed great challenges to urban sustainable development. Forecasting of MSW is a hot point of waste management research, and the amount and composition of waste generated comprise the basic information needed for the planning, operation and optimization of MSW management system. Scales, factors and methods were summarized as the core parts of MSW forecasting, and its framework was proposed. Based on the identification of research scales, factors influencing waste generation were reviewed and classified into intrinsic, socio-demographic, individual, natural and policy factors. Principles, characteristics and applications of regression analysis, time series analysis, grey system model and system dynamics method were also discussed. The areas that should be taken seriously in future were orooosed as well.