小花间洪水预报模型和经验方法在陆浑水库入库径流过程中的应用对比

Application Comparison of Xiaohuajian Flood Forecasting Model and Empirical Method in Inflow Runoff Process of Luhun Reservoir

为准确预测即将发生的洪水过程,最大限度地减少灾害损失,采用小花间洪水预报模型和经验方法分别对伊河流域的陆浑水库入库径流过程进行了模拟,并将模拟结果与实测流量过程进行了对比分析。结果表明,两种方法模拟结果精度相差不大,均能满足预报精度要求,但小花间洪水预报模型模拟结果整体效果较好,尤其是洪水过程与实测过程比较吻合;经验方法模拟结果稍差,但误差在可接受范围内。两种方法均具有一定实用性,建议两种方法联合运用,将小花间洪水预报模型的洪水预报结果作为指导水库防洪调度的主要依据,经验方法的预报结果作为参考。

In order to predict an impending flood accurately and minimize the disaster losses, using Xiaohuajian flood forecasting model and empirical method, the runoff process of Luhun reservoir in Yihe basin was simulated respectively. And the results were compared with the observed runoff process. The results show that the accuracy of two methods are similar; the accuracy of Xiaohuajian flood forecasting model is relatively higher, especially the process of the flood; the accuracy of the empirical methods is worse, but it can also be accept. Two models are both practicable. So, it suggests that two models are applied jointly. The result of Xiaohuajian flood forecasting model is used to guide the reservoir flood control, and the result of empirical method can be as a reference.