新疆经济增长波动分析

Analysis on Economic Growth Fluctuation of Xinjiang Province

利用新疆1953年～2010年GDP增长率对新疆经济周期波动的状态和特征进行分析。综合应用谱估计法、趋势百分比法和HP滤波法等,对新疆经济波动周期做科学合理的划分,并对周期各阶段特征进行概述,探讨新疆经济波动周期的影响因素。分析结果显示,新疆经济周期波动主周期是5年,次周期是2年,研究期内共划分6个大周期和9个中小周期。改革开放前后经济周期波动特征差异较大,整体波动趋势与全国经济周期基本一致。

The paper uses 1953-2010 GDP growth of Xinxiang to analyze the status and characteristics of Xinxiang economic cycle. It uses the spectrum estimation method, trend percentage method and HP filtering method to divide Xinxiang economic fluctuations and analyze the characteristics of each stage of cycle. It also discusses the influence factors of Xinxiang economic fluctuation cycle. The analysis results show that Xinxiang economic cycle lord cycle is 5 years fluctuations, minor cycle is 2 years, and the period is divided into six big cycles and nine small and medium - sized cycles. There are big differences of economic cycle fluctuation feature before and after reform and open, the overall trend of fluctuations is basically the same as national economic cycle.