北京市2010年麻疹减毒活疫苗补充免疫活动前后麻疹流行病学特征变化

Epidemiology Characteristics of Measles before and after Supplementary Immunization Activities of Measles Attenuated Live Vaccine in Beijing in 2010

目的分析北京市2010年麻疹减毒活疫苗(Measles Attenuated LiveVaccine,MV)补充免疫活动(Supplem entary Immunization Activities,SIAs)前后麻疹流行病学特征,评价控制麻疹效果,为消除麻疹提供参考。方法利用2005～2010年麻疹逐月发病数据建立自动回归滑动平均混合模型(Autoregressive Integrated MovingAverage,ARIMA),预测2011年发病水平,采用描述流行病学方法,对北京市实施MVSIA前后麻疹监测数据进行分析。结果预测实施MVSIA前麻疹发病率为49.5/100万,实施MVSIA后麻疹发病率为5/100万,较预测水平下降89.9%。各年龄组麻疹发病率均有大幅下降,削平了季节性流行高峰。实施MVSIA后,≤4岁和15～39岁人群麻疹发病仍占较大的构成比,分别为37.8%和53.1%。结论北京市2010年实施MVSIA后,麻疹发病大幅下降。为进一步降低麻疹发病水平,应维持高水平常规免疫,提高MV及时接种率,加强学龄前散居儿童和成人查漏补种,最大程度提高免疫水平。

Objective To analyze the epidemiology characteristics of measles before and after measles attenuated live vaccine （MV） supplementary immunization activities （SIAs） in Beijing in 2010, evaluate the effectiveness of MV SIA and provide the basis for elimination of measles. Methods Autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model was developed for forecasting measles incidence in 2011. Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on measles surveillance data during 2005-2011. Results Predicted measles incidence was 49.5/1,000,000 in 2011 before MV SIA. The measles incidence was 5/1,000,000 after MV SIA, descending 89.9 % compared predicted incidence. MV SIA led to the sharp drop of the measles incidence among all age groups and flatted seasonal epidemic peak. The proportion of children of ≤ 4 years and adults of 15-39 years old were 37.8 % and 53.1% after MV SIA. Conclusion MV SIA of 2010 in Beijing played a significant role for measles control. For further decreasing incidence of measles, we should strengthen routine immunization, improve timeliness of MV vaccination, and carry out SIA among the pre-school scattered children and adults.