我国进口汇率传递的商品异质性——基于中美贸易高度分解数据的测算

The Heterogeneity of Exchange Pass-through Across Commodities:a Measurement on the Highly Disaggregated China's Import Prices

本文基于高度分解的商品单价和成本数据构建面板模型,通过对18个我国从美国进口商品组合计229种HS八位数编码商品的研究,证实进口汇率传递的商品异质性显著。按照Lall(2000)的方法将商品归类后进一步发现,汇率不完全传递的商品组均为资源密集和低技术制成品,研究时间段内此类商品具有成本上升和需求刚性的特点,人民币升值并没能带来此类进口商品价格的等比例下降;完全(或过度)传递的商品组则均为中高技术制造业商品,成本变化稳定或呈下降趋势,需求更富弹性,进口价格下降与人民币升值幅度相当。研究还发现2005年7月汇率制度改革后,进口商品价格的汇率传递率小幅上升,说明汇率波动性加大后厂商更积极地调整其商品报价。

Based upon the highly disaggregated data, using panel data method, this paper examines 18 groups of imported commodities from the U. S., which include a total of 229 HS 8 digit commodities. Strong evidence is found supporting the heterogeneity of exchange rate pass - through across commodities. Further examination by grouping the commodities according to the classification by Lall （2000） reveals that the commodities that show a partial pass -through are resource -based and low -tech products, which demonstrated the up - growing cost and rigid demand. The appreciation of CNY against USD did not bring equal decrease in the import prices. On the other hand, the commodities showing a full pass - through are high - tech products, which shared rather stable cost and flexible demand. Their import prices dropped at the same pace with the appreciation of CNY. It is also found that the exchange rate pass - through was a little higher after the July of 2005, when China adopted a more flexible exchange rate regime, which proves that the importers are more willing to alter the prices facing the changes in exchange rate.