当前经济形势与未来发展趋势的几点判断

The Current Situation and Future Trends of China Economy

本文通过对欧债危机以及美国经济、全球通胀、增长动力转换等方面的分析,指出金融危机对中国的影响仍在深化,经济下行和通胀的压力依然存在。作者同时认为,支撑我国长期增长的因素没有消失,后发优势依然存在,估计未来10年中国经济仍有潜力维持年均8%以上的高增长。应对复杂经济形势的基本思路是,长远要防控由高增长转向中速增长出现大幅下滑的战略转型的风险,当前要预防通胀,优化结构,鼓励改革创新,消除经济扭曲,营造更加公平、公正、自由且充满活力的发展环境。

The paper argue that although the impact of the Europe financial crisis, global teconomic downturn and inflation pressures to China still exist, the factor to support Chinese long -term growth have not disappeared, it is estimated that over the next decade, the Chinese economy still could maintain the annual growth of more than 8%. In the long term, China must control the risk of a sharp decline with strategic transformation that economy grwoth from high to medium speed. In the short term, China must prevent inflation, optimize the structure, encourage innovation, eliminate the distortions in the economy system, and create a fair, free environment for economy development.