中国西部省份工业结构同构度测算及其决定因素——基于SIP框架的分析与实证检验

The Convergence of Industrial Structure in Chinese Western Provinces: Measurement and Explanation——Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test Based on the SIP Framework

本文构建了一个研究后发地区工业结构演化的SIP分析框架,设计了单个地区的工业结构同构度测算指标体系,并运用2000—2010年间中国西部各省份35个工业行业的面板数据进行了测算,结果表明各省份的工业结构同构度水平并没有下降,反而呈明显上升趋势。实证检验结果显示,物质资本投资是一省工业结构同构度上升的主要决定因素,这对"资本投资促进西部各省份经济增长"的有关观点是一个必要补充;另一深层次的原因在于一省"工业项目—重要产业—工业结构"三层次间传导机制的失效,由此引发的"只有项目没有产业"的产业基础缺失以及"结构嵌入陷阱",损害了各省份工业结构调整的效率。此外,对外开放具有"双刃剑效应":一方面拉升了各省份的工业结构同构度,另一方面提升了技术进步对工业结构同构水平降低的贡献;金融服务水平、交通运输能力提升与技术进步会降低一省的工业结构同构水平,人力资本投资与市场化进程等因素没有显著影响。

The SIP framework for analyzing the evolving mechanism of industrial structure of less developing regions is constructed in this paper, and measurement indicators of convergence of industrial structure of a province are configurated, meanwhile we use panel data including 35 industries of 12 western provinces from 2000 to 2010 to estimate and test empirically. Evidences show that the convergence indices of industrial structure of western China increased obviously instead of decreasing, and the main driver is of physical captial investment, which is a necessary compementarity to the popular viewpoint that capital investment promotes the economic growth of western China. Another underlying reason is the dysfunction of the transmission mechanism of ＂project-industry-structure＂, which results in the missing industrial basic system without growing project and the structural embedded trap, and hurts the efficiency of industrial structural change in western China. Besides, we also find the ＂double edge effect＂ of openning-up： one is the increasement of convergence of industrial structure, the other is advance the contribution of technological progress to decrease the convergence of industrial structure. And, the development of financial service, transportation and technological progress helps to reduce the convergence level of indusrial structure, while human capital investment, stage of industrialization and innovation of system contribute little.