摘要
在同时考虑随机性不确定事件和模糊性不确定事件对电网规划影响的基础上 ,综合应用概率论与模糊集合论 ,提出对电网规划方案进行可靠性评估的模糊可靠性评估方法。应用概率统计理论描述和处理设备与电网运行状态变化以及负荷状态变化的随机性 ,应用模糊集合论描述设备故障率、修复率、设备状态概率、电网状态概率及某负荷水平发生的概率和负荷水平预测值等数值上的模糊不确定性 ,并利用相应的模糊集合运算得出电网的模糊可靠性指标。通过对IEEE 2 4节点可靠性测试系统 (RTS)进行计算并利用Mon teCarlo模拟法进行验证 ,证明了所提方法的正确性和有效性。
Based on description of stochastic events and fuzzy events using probabilistic method and fuzzy set theory,the evaluation method of fuzzy reliability in electric power network planning is presented.The stochastic change in operation states of equipment and network is described by probabilistic method.The fuzziness in parameters,state probabilistic of equipment and loads is described by fuzzy set.Fuzzy reliability indexes are obtained by means of fuzzy set calculation.The numerical example of IEEE\|24 buses reliability test system and Monte Carlo simulating indicates correctness and availability of the proposed approach.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第11期77-80,共4页
Proceedings of the CSEE
关键词
电网规划
模糊性
可靠性
electric power network planning
fuzziness
reliability
