百年夏季奥运会项群洲际竞技实力分布态势研究

Research Distributed Situation of Intercontinental Strength for Events Group of the Centennial Olympic Games

随着奥运会百年历程的发展,世界各洲际在不同项群上展现出不同的竞技实力,各洲际奥运会上所获的奖牌是代表其竞技实力的主要指标。应用经济学中波士顿矩阵法又称四象限分析法将奥运奖牌占有率和奖牌增长率双指标结合分析,确定竞技实力分布态势的4种类型:占增双高态,高占低增态,低占高增态和占增双低态。百年奥运4个历史阶段中,各项群竞技实力分布态势特点表现为:欧洲在所有项群奖牌占有率均具明显优势,4个阶段呈占增双高态或高占低增态;北美测量类项群各阶段均呈高占低增态或占增双高态,其他类项群多呈低占高增态;亚洲第4阶段制胜类和得分类项群实力较强,均呈高占低增态或占增双高态;中南美洲、非洲和大洋洲实力较弱,各类项群4阶段均呈低占高增态或占增双低态。奥运会奖牌分布态势研究是竞技实力研究的一个新形式,它为今后竞技体育实力评价体系的研究提供新的思路和视角。

With the development of the centennial Olympic Games, different continents displayed different sports strength in different Olympic events, the Olympic medals index represented sports strength. Citing Boston matrix in economics, distributed situation of sports strength was divided into four main types.. double-high trend,high-sharing and low-growing trend, high-growing and low-sharing trend and double- low trend. The distribution characteristics of intercontinental events group power in four historical stages is as follows.. European in all events group showed a distinct advantage at medals in the four stages, and showed double-high trend or high-sharing and low-growing trend~ North America in the measurement- group at all stages showed high-sharing and low-growing trend or double-high trend, but in other groups showed a high-sharing and low-growing trend; Asian at stage four was outstanding performance at defeat- group and score^group,it showed high-sharing and low-growing trend or double-high trend. Central and South America, Africa and Oceania were weaker on all groups of men and women at all stages, it showed low-sharing and high-growing trend or double-low trend. Research on distribution trend for Olympic med- als is a new research form for sports, to provide the new mentality and perspective for the next sports strength appraisal system＇s research.