天津市住宅市场发展的系统动力学模型仿真研究

Simulation Study of the System Dynamics Model of the Housing Market Development in Tianjin

为构建天津市健康、稳定的住宅市场,采用系统动力学理论,对天津市住宅市场发展进行系统建模,将天津市住宅市场系统划分为:人口与就业、经济与金融、土地供应、住宅供给与需求5个子系统。根据天津市年鉴及天津市国土资源与房屋管理局等统计数据,分析各子系统间影响机理,建立系统反馈回路,从而构建城市住宅系统动力学仿真模型,模拟近5年天津市住宅市场发展现状,并预测天津市住宅市场未来10年发展走势,结合预测住宅市场发展,提出人口、就业及土地调控等政策性建议。

In order to build up a healthy and stable housing market of Tianjin, the residence industry in Tianjin establishes a system model based on the theory of system dynamics. Tianjin housing market system is divided into five subsystems： population and employment, economic and financial, land supply, housing supply and demand. According to the statistical data of the Yearbook of Tianjin and the Tianjin Land Resources and Housing Authority, the main content of this paper is to analyze the impact mechanism of each subsystem and introduction of system feedback loops, which is set up to build the urban housing system dynamics simulation model for simulating the existing five-year residential market in Tianjin development status and to forecast the development trend of the Tianjin residential market in the next decade. Combined with the forecast residential market development, the paper puts forward policy recommendations of the population, employment and land regulation.