辽宁省碳排放、能源消费与经济增长的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relationship for Carbon Emissions、Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Liaoning Province

在环境库兹涅茨曲线的基础上,通过VAR分析方法,从实证的角度揭示了辽宁省1978-2009年碳排量、能源消耗同经济增长之间的动态关系,通过广义脉冲反应分析,得出不同于以往的"N"型EKC曲线.Granger因果检验表明,辽宁省持续提升的GDP不断刺激碳排放量和能源消耗量的增加,但环境变化却不是推动省内经济增长的重要变量.辽宁目前的环境质量正随着经济的增长而恶化,环境质量的提升问题亟待解决.

Based on the environmental Kuznets curve theory, the paper has analyzed the dynamic relationship between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Liaoning province during 1978-2009 with the method of VAR. By employing generalized impulse response function analysis, it is found that the result differs from the usual ,but likes an ＂N＂type EKC. The Granger causality tests show that, the increasing GDP of Liaoning province continues to enhance its carbon emissions and energy consumption, but the changes of the environment is not the main variable to explain the economic growth. As the economy continues to grow, the environmental quality deteriorates, therefore, measures must be taken immediately to improve the environment quality.