基于专利地图的技术预测体系构建及其实证研究

Construction of Technology Forecasting System Based on Patent Map & Its Empirical Study

文章针对以专利技术为研究对象的技术预测方法,探讨了专利与技术预测之间的联系,总结出进行专利技术预测的3个主要方面———技术活跃度、技术生命周期、技术进化方向;针对技术预测的这3个主要方面,进一步深度挖掘专利分析和专利地图、技术分析与预测之间的深层次联系,架构起专利地图与技术预测之间的桥梁,构建了基于专利地图的技术预测体系,该体系也是一种运用专利地图来进行技术预测的系统性方法;最后,以质子交换膜燃料电池(PEMFC)技术为例,实证了所构建的技术预测体系的科学性和实用性。

Based on the technology forecasting method with the patent technology as the object of study, this article discusses the relations between patents and technology forecasting, and summarizes the 3 main aspects of patent technology forecasting： tech- nology liveness, technology lifecycle, and technology evolution trend. Then, the article further explores the inherent relations be- tween patent analysis and patent map, and technology analysis and forecasting from the 3 aspects, builds the bridge between patent map and technology forecasting, and constructs the technology forecasting system based on patent map, which is also a systematic method of applying patent map in technology forecasting. Finally, taking the Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell （PEMFC） tech- nology for example, the article demonstrates the scientificalness and practicability of the constructed technology forecasting system.