稳增长如何摆脱投资依赖症?

How to Dispense Dependence on Investment Expansion to Stimulate Economic Growth?

通过对我国当前投资扩张的约束条件的分析发现,目前我国经济的投资边际效率已经越过后起型国家的收益递增阶段,隐含未来投资效益恶化的风险。在结构性经济减速背景下,我国宏观调控需要突破凯恩斯主义的传统政策思路,调控的重点不应被短期波动所左右,摆脱投资依赖症的关键是平衡收入结构;同时,需要对人口政策进行必要的结构性调整,构建支持经济可持续增长的人口消费基础。

This paper focuses on the analysis of the necessary conditions on the current investment expansion and the potential negative effects by the expansion.It shows that passing the initial increasing stage,the marginal efficiency of investment of Chinese economy has demonstrated some decreasing signal which foreshadows more risk for these investment expansions in question.The paper argues that,for the purpose of stabilizing economic growth and rebalancing the economic structure under the current economic environment,it needs to break through the traditional Keynesian model for macroeconomic policy.The policy should not be tied by the normal fluctuation in the short run,instead,it should concentrate on the sustainable growth in the long run.The key point to get rid of the dependence on investment expansion is to invest more on human capital and R&D,to balance the earnings distribution and restructure demographic consumption foundation.