摘要
顺差过多是引起我国通胀的主要原因,人民币适度升值是减少顺差、缓减通胀的有效措施。运用ARMA-EGARCH模型探寻CPI发展变化规律,并对2013年的CPI走势进行预测分析。
The excessive surplus is the main reason for the inflation, so the modest appreciation of the RMB is an effective measure to reduce the surplus and slow inflation. The paper makes ues of ARMA - EGARCH model to explore the CPI development of variation and predict the CPI trend for the year 2013.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期51-55,共5页
On Economic Problems
关键词
通胀成因
人民币汇率
外汇储备
CPI预测
the causes of inflation
RMB exchange rate
foreign exchange reserves
CPI forecast
