摘要
中国主要寿险公司2004M8～2012M2间月度保费收入时间序列存在明显的季节特征,很大程度上与寿险业"开门红"习惯有关。建立SARIMA模型,发现当期寿险保费收入受以往各期的影响,对模型进行样本内预测,达到了较好效果。在此模型基础上,利用邹检验验证保险会计新准则、保监会业务结构调整窗口指导和银保新政对寿险保费收入时间序列的影响,并根据验证结果,提出相关政策建议。
The time series of life insurance premium presents seasonal traits. In some degree it relates to the habit of life insurers＇ good beginning of the whole year. Based on the data over the period from 2004M8 to 2012M2, the paper found a SA- RIMA model of life insurance premium and achieved a perfect static forecast . According to the model, it is concluded that the current llfe insurance premium is affected by former premiums. Based on the model, we make use of the chow test to testi- fy the effect of insurance accounting principle and make business structure adjustment and the regulations of banc assurance to the time series of life insurance premiums.
出处
《财经论丛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期71-79,共9页
Collected Essays on Finance and Economics
关键词
寿险保费
季节时间序列
邹检验
会计准则
结构调整
银保新政
life insurance premium
seasonal time series
chow test
accounting principle
business structure adjust-ment
regulations of banc assurance
