南海问题国际化的多层次动因

Multi-level Dynamics for Internationalization of South China Sea Issue

2009年至今,南海问题呈现出加速国际化的趋势。这是当前国际体系转型时期的一种伴生现象,有其必然性。在南海问题国际化的进程中,美国利用其在国际体系中的特殊地位,通过战略调整释放信息,成为主要推手。日本和印度基于自身战略考虑,利用美国战略调整提供的"时机"成为积极参与者。在全球大国和区域大国的带动下,处在第一线的菲律宾和越南成为最迫不及待的实践者。不同层次的动因汇聚累积并产生加倍放大的战略效应,对中国坚持南海问题应双边解决的主张产生了越来越大的压力。由于南海问题国际化是中国加速崛起的产物,有其长期性,中国政府也必须做好长期应对的准备。

Since 2009, the South China Sea issue has markedly been internationalized. The trend of internationalization is a necessary result, or an attendant phenomenon of such radical transformation of international system. During the process of internationalization, US exploits its special status in the current system to send signals by employing its ＂back to Asia＂ strategy, hence the main pushing hands. With their own strategic considerations, Japan and India have taken this opportunity and actively participated in the process. Encouraged by these amplified strategic effects, Philippines and Vietnam can not wait to further push forward the process of internationalization of South China Sea issue. The dynamics on different levels have converged and produced accumulated strategic effects, which is now creating great pressure on China＇s position of solving the issue through bilateral negotiation As a result of the changes of international system as well as China＇s rise, internationalization of South China Sea issue will continue, and China should be well prepared for it accordingly