北京市猩红热发病周期的小波分析及其与五运六气关系研究

A Wavelet Analysis on the Onset Cycle of Scarlet Fever in Beijing and Its Relationship with Theory of Five Evolutive Phases and Six Climatic Factors

目的探讨北京市猩红热发病周期及其与五运六气周期的关联性。方法采用复Morlet小波对北京市1970—2004年35年间猩红热年发病率和六气发病率进行周期分析,探讨其与五运六气周期的关联性,分析波峰对应年份干支特点与运气学说的关系。结果猩红热年发病率和二之气发病率均具有5年和28年两个主周期,5年主周期与运气学说的五运5年周期吻合,高发年份为金运。结论五运周期与猩红热发病周期存在一定的吻合性;猩红热发病中存在五运六气学说中的准周期现象和多周期叠加现象。

Objective To explore the onset cycle of scarlet fever in Beijing and its association with theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors （FEPSCF）. Methods Based on the monthly scarlet fever data from 1970 to 2004, Complex Morlet wavelet was adopted to analyze the annual inci- dence and the incidence of six climatic factors in the past 35 years. Its association with the cycles of FEP- SCF was explored. The features of heavenly stems and earthly branches in the year that the wave peak corresponded and their correlations with doctrine of FEPSCF were analyzed. Results The annual inci- dence of scarlet fever and the incidence of FEPSCF had two main cycles, i.e., 5 years and 28 years. The 5-year primary cycle was consistent with 5-year cycle of FEPSCF theory. The high incidence year of 5- year primary cycle was Jinyun. Conclusions The cycle of five evolutive phases was consistent with the onset cycle of scarlet fever. The quasi-periodic phenomenon and multi-cycle superimposed phenomenon of FEPSCF theory existed in the incidence of scarlet fever.