城市产业发展、就业需求与人口流动:中国与国际经验

Development of Urban Industry, Demand of Employment and Population Mobility:Experience from China and Developed Countries

本文通过比较分析中国与美国、日本和欧洲等发达国家的典型国际大城市在城市产业分布、就业与人口聚集方面的一般规律及特征,揭示相应经济发展阶段城市人口规模、产业分布与劳动力就业分布关系的特征。研究表明:经济发展阶段的变化,经济结构即产业结构及其布局将会根据要素相对价格发生变化并不断调整,市场机制调节劳动力需求变化促进就业人口结构的不断优化,由此城市人口流动及规模相应发生变化,国际大城市人口总量规模及其增长也将随之变动直至趋于平稳。

This article, through comparative analysis of industrial distribution and employment and population accumulation from some typical international metropolitans among China, the United States, Japan and Europe, reveals distribution relations of population size and industrial distribution and labor employment in the corresponding stage of economic development. We find, due to change of stage of economic development, industrial structure and distribution could continuously change and adjust according to relative factor prices. The market mechanism could adjust labor demand and promote continuous optimization of population structure of working age. Therefore, not only population mobility and size will correspondingly change but also the total population size and growth will change till it gets stabilized.