城市扩展影响下生态系统服务的多情景模拟和预测——以天津市滨海地区为例

Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecosystem services as affected by urban expansion:A case study in coastal area of Tianjin,North China

基于改进的Logistic-CA模型,以天津市滨海地区为例,在历史外推、内生发展、外生发展3种情景中,模拟预测2011—2020年城市扩展影响下生态系统服务功能的空间演化规律特征.结果表明:3种情境下,研究区最终的生态系统服务功能总量大体相当,生态系统服务功能最低的1级功能区空间格局基本一致,但3种生态系统服务功能的空间演化过程差异较大;低等级生态系统服务功能区呈组团状以十字型生长,十字型的中心片区位于塘沽城区,最终形成海河轴与沿海带的十字型片区.

Based on the modified Logistic-CA model, and taking the coastal area of Tianjin as a case, this paper simulated the spatial evolution patterns of ecosystem services as affected by the ur- ban expansion in 2011-2020 under the scenarios of historical extrapolation, endogenous develop- ment, and exogenous development. Overall, the total ecosystem services of the study area under the three scenarios were generally the same, and the functional region with the lowest level ecosystem services had the identical spatial pattern. However, the spatial evolution patterns of the ecosystem services of the study area under the three scenarios had a great difference. The functional regions with lower-level ecosystem services grew in a cross-shaped pattern, with the Tanggu downtown as a center, and finally formed a full connectivity area along the Haihe River and coastal zone.