基于Logistic增长模型的四川幼儿专任教师数量预测

Quantity Forecasting of Full-time Preschool Teachers in Sichuan Based on Logistic Model

对四川省幼儿专任教师数量统计分析发现,1983—2000年幼儿专任教师数量的变化呈现出"S"型增长趋势。2001年,全省幼儿专任教师的数量陡然下降到1983年的水平,之后的6～7年间其数量缓慢增加,但从2008年开始,增长速度明显加快,也呈现出"S"型增长趋势。因此,依据2001—2010年的统计数据,建立起相应的Logistic增长模型,并对2011—2020年四川幼儿专任教师的需求数量进行预测。

By analyzing the statistics of the amount of full-time preschool teachers in Sichuan province, the author found that during the period from 1983-2000, the growing trend in the amount of full-time preschool teachers could be described as an S model. In 2001, the amount descended to the level in 1983, and later the amount increased slowly. The growth rate has been quickened dramatically since 2008. During this period of time, the growing trend was also characterized as an S model. Therefore, the paper established a corresponding Logistic model to predict the amount of full-time preschool teachers in Sichuan province during the period from 2011 to 2020.