人民币实际汇率变化如何影响工业行业就业？

A Study on the Links between Real Exchange Rate Change and Employment Adjustment in Chinese Industrial Sectors

本文基于汇率变化对就业市场影响的扩展理论框架,探讨了人民币实际汇率变化影响就业市场的传导机制和渠道;通过构建人民币在产业层面的实际有效汇率指数,采用四位码工业行业面板数据,评估了实际汇率变化通过不同渠道对中国工业行业净就业的影响作用,检验了行业的贸易开放、市场竞争结构、劳动要素密集度、所有制结构与人民币汇率变化对就业影响作用之间的系统性关系。研究表明:人民币实际汇率升值通过直接的出口开放和进口渗透渠道同时会对工业行业净就业水平产生显著的负面影响。行业的市场竞争结构、劳动密集度与实际汇率调整对就业市场的影响存在显著的系统性关系,随着行业平均净利润水平的提升,实际汇率升值对工业行业净就业水平的影响会显著地降低。国有工业部门就业市场对于汇率变化并未呈现显著的刚性特征,其净就业水平同样受到了人民币实际汇率变化的显著影响,并且实际汇率升值对国有工业企业净就业水平的负面影响作用要显著高于对私营企业的作用。

This study investigates the impacts of exchange rate movements on net employment in Chinese industrial sectors. The pass-through effects of exchange rate movements on job market are analyzed and its determinants are explored through a simple theoretical framework. The dynamic real exchange rate change effects on net employment in different industries are also evaluated empirically using 4-digit industry panel dataset and industry specific real exchange rate of Renminbi（RMB）. This study yields three main results：First, real exchange rate appreciation of RMB can have important negative effects on net employment of industrial sectors through both import competition and export revenue channels. A 10% appreciation of RMB real exchange rate can cause net employment of Chinese industrial sectors to drop about 2. 6% to 3. 9% after controlling for other variables ; Second, the market competitive structure of industrial sectors is systematically related to the real exchange rate change effects on job market, the magnitude of exchange rate change effects on net employment will decrease with the increase of profit margins of industrial sectors; Third, the job market of state enterprises is also very responsive to real exchange rate change and the impact of RMB real exchange rate change on net employment is more substantial for state enterprises than private enterprises.