摘要
贝叶斯决策理论是关于决策者在信息不确定的情况下如何作出判断和选择的理论。贝叶斯决策理论起源于18世纪人们对概率论的研究,但其最完善的理论形态却直到20世纪中叶才由萨维奇提出来,我们称之为经典贝叶斯决策理论。后来,又发展出了证据决策理论以及稍后的因果决策理论。考察贝叶斯决策理论的演进过程和研究动态,通过梳理其发展脉络而预测其发展趋势,对于我们研究和发展归纳逻辑理论及其应用具有重要的意义。
Bayesian decision theory is a theory about how to make a judgment and choice when the decision makers are under uncertainties. It originated from the research of probability, but the first complete theory of Bayesian deci- sion theory was not proposed until Savage＇s publication of The Foundations of Statistics in 1954. It was called the classical Bayesian decision theory. Then the advanced Bayesian decision theory called evidential decision theory and causal decision theory was developed. It is very important to discuss the evolving process and research trends of Bayesian decision theory for us to study and develop the theory of inductive logic and its application.
出处
《科学技术哲学研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期1-7,共7页
Studies in Philosophy of Science and Technology
基金
国家社科基金后期资助项目"决策
博弈与认知--归纳逻辑的理论与应用研究"(09FZX005)
关键词
贝叶斯决策理论
经典决策理论
证据决策理论
因果决策理论
Bayesian decision theory
classical decision theory
evidential decision theory
causal decision theory
