土地财政依赖、财政缺口与房价——基于省际面板数据的研究

The Relationship between Land Financial Dependence, Fiscal Income Gap and House Price:A Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文采用1999-2009年中国省际面板数据研究土地财政依赖、财政缺口和房价间的关系。研究发现土地财政依赖、财政缺口、房地产国内贷款与房价之间存在相互反馈的作用机制。静态和动态面板数据的分析结果表明,土地财政依赖具有显著为正的滞后效应,对房价存在显著的提高作用。此外,地方财政收入缺口和房地产国内贷款对房价也存在显著的正向影响,地方政府干预市场的行为对于我国近年来房价的不断攀升起到关键的作用。对此,应当在经济和政策上引导地方政府改变以土地出让获取财政收入的融资方式,规范土地财政行为。

This paper studies the relationship between land financial dependence and house price using provincial panel data from 1999 to 2009 in China.The study shows that mutual feedback mechanisms play a role between land financial dependence,fiscal income gap,real estate loans and house price.Static and dynamic panel data analysis results show that land financial dependence significantly improve the house price with a notable positive lag effect.Moreover,the study shows that house price fluctuates corresponding to changes of local fiscal income gap and real estate loans greatly in the same way.Thus the conclusion comes that the behaviors of government intervention in the market are found to be responsible for the continuously increase of house price in China.In order to reduce such effect,local fiscal income related with land should be under economic and political guidance,altering from getting revenue by land premium to other more sustainable ways.