贸易多元化战略下的贸易联系持续期分析——以我国纺织品出口为例

The Trade Relation Duration under the Trade Diversification Strategy: An Example from the Export of Textiles in China

延展贸易联系持续期可以为我国多元化贸易战略的进一步实施提供新的视角。本文以我国出口贸易中的典型产品———纺织品为例,深入研究了贸易联系持续期对于提高我国多元化贸易战略质量的意义。研究发现,现阶段我国纺织品贸易联系持续期普遍偏短,平均生存期只有2～3年,10年存活率仅有30%～40%左右,这并不有利于我国多元化贸易战略的深入实施。进一步对影响我国纺织品贸易联系持续期因素的研究,认为进口国的市场规模及其人均消费能力、产品出口贸易初始额、差异化率及其单位价值、双边贸易额及贸易距离等均会影响我国纺织品的贸易联系持续期。基于此,本文提出了相应的政策建议,如增强出口产品的不可替代性、有的放矢地培育进口商、注重与他国现有贸易关系的维系等,均能推进我国贸易多元化战略的有效实施。

Prolonging trade relation duration can enforce the strategy of trade diversification. In this paper, we study the role of trade relation duration in trade diversification based on the export of textiles. And we find that nowadays, the trade duration of textiles is mostly short,the average duration is only 2 to 3 years,and the ten years＇ survival rate is only 30% to 40%. And this phenomenon does not benefit to enforce textile ＇ s strategy of trade diversification. Furthermore, we study the forces which influence textile ＇ s trade duration, and find that textiles trade duration is influenced by the market size of import country and its average consumption, the initial export and characters and unit value,bilateral trade and trade distance,and so on. Based on these conclusions,we give some advices on how to improve the strategy of trade diversification,such as enforcing the characters of export products,choosing importer purposely and so on.