汇率偏好、游说竞争及中国主要产业部门的汇率政策影响力评估

Exchange Rate Preference,Lobbying Competition and Assessment of Sectors' Influence on China's Exchange Rate Policy

新政治经济学将公共政策的形成视为利益集团相互竞争的产物。本文将这一思路引入汇率政策领域,首先对农业、制造业、服务业和银行业等中国代表性产业部门的汇率偏好进行了归纳,发现这些部门存在汇率偏好异质性,即农业和制造业偏好较低的本币汇率,银行业相对中性,而服务业则偏好较高的本币汇率。进一步的理论模型分析表明,产业利益集团在影响汇率政策决策方面存在激烈竞争,且其影响力与向政府提供的"激励"之间存在关联。据此,本文客观评估了2005～2010年这些产业部门对于中国汇率政策决策的影响力,其中,作为强势利益集团的制造业对中国汇率政策的影响力显著超过其他产业部门。

The new political economy believes that the formation of one public policy is the outcome of competi- tion among interest ~oups. This paper introduces the thought into the field of exchange rate policy. It outlines the sectoral preference of exchange rate of China＇s main sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, service and banking industry. Further theoretic mode/analysis proves that industrial interest groups may have incentives to compete with each other to shape China＇s exchange rate policy. Moreover, this paper also objectively assesses the real influence of these sectors on China＇s exchange rate policy, finding that manufacturing industry plays a larger role than other sectors.