论国际金融危机的形成与演变机制

On Formation and Evolution Mechanism of International Financial Crisis

通过对各类金融危机的形成和演变机制的分析,本文认为金融危机是经济主体资产负债表恶化的一种表现形式,资产负债表的恶化是货币政策、财政政策、体制和市场缺陷等因素共同作用、长期积累的结果,货币政策失当是资产负债表恶化的先导因素,软约束机制、道德风险、制度刚性是危机的根本原因。2008年～2009年对危机反应过度,使宏观对策偏离了结构调整的轨道,加剧了结构失衡,使中国失去了一次抄底国际资源、人才和技术市场的机会。世界经济面临二次探底,中国经济将不可避免地受到影响,但适当降低增长速度符合中国的战略利益。为避免陷入金融危机的泥沼,中国不宜再次出台大规模经济刺激计划,而应该坚持结构调整,切实转变经济增长方式。

Based on all kinds of financial crisis in the formation and evolution mechanism analysis, this paper argues that the financial crisis is the manifestation of economic subject balance sheet deterioration, and the latter is the end product of all these factors like monetary policy, fiscal policy, system and the market defects. Monetary policy misconduct is the pilot factor of bal ance sheet deterioration and soft constraint mechanism, the moral risk, and rigid system is the root cause of the crisis. The year 2008 and 2009 overreacting crisis makes the macroscopic countermeasures off the track of the structure adjustment, which intensi fies the unbalanced structure, making China lose a copy bottom of the international resources, talent and technology market bot toms opportunities. The world economy is facing a double dip, China＇s economy will inevitably affected; however, decrease ap propriately the growth rate meets China＇ s strategic interests. In order to avoid financial crisis, China should not carry our large scale economic stimulus plan, but should adhere to the structure adjustment, transforming the pattern of economic growth.