中国城镇居民人均可支配收入结构的灰色关联分析与预测

Grey Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Urban Residents′ Per Capita Disposable Income Structure in China

通过灰色关联度的方法计算结果显示:中国城镇居民可支配收入结构不合理和发展不平衡现象较为严重,工薪收入和转移性收入是影响城镇居民收入的主要因素,并且其重要程度有进一步增强的趋势,其他来源的收入对居民收入增长有明显的抑制作用。最后,通过建立GM(1,1)模型和GM(1,1)残差模型对中国城镇居民未来五年的人均可支配收入及其构成进行了预测,并对预测结果进行了灰色关联分析。

The results by the method of grey correlation analysis indicate that there is tionality and imbalance in the disposable income structure of town people in China. a serious phenomenon of irra- Salary income and transfer in- come are the main influential factors with the trend of growing significance while other sources of income obviously have negative effect on the increase of their income. At last, per capita disposable income of town people in China in the coming five years and its structure are predicted by GM （ 1, 1 ） model and residual error model of GM （ 1, 1 ）, and the results are analyzed with the method of grey correlation analysis.