基于人口投入产出模型的中国人口结构预测及分析

Projections and Analysis on China's Population Structure Based on Demographic Input-Output Model

人口问题是人类社会发展的核心问题,预测未来人口的变化是一个国家或地区制定相应政策的重要依据。本文探讨了人口研究的一种新途径——人口投入产出模型,利用人口投入产出模型预测了2010年至2030年我国人口总量以及结构的变化情况。首先,利用现有数据编制了2000年至2009年中国人口投入产出序列表。然后,利用人口投入产出模型及计量经济学相关方法,计算我国2010年至2030年各年人口总量以及各年龄段人口数量。最后,针对人口数量和结构的变化进行相应分析。可以看出,利用投入产出技术研究人口问题,既是投入产出技术一个新的研究方向,也是研究人口问题的新途径。

Population is the core issue of the development of human society and population projections can provide important basis for policy formulation of a country or region. This paper illustrates a new way of population research, i.e. demographic input-output model. Making use of demographic input-output model, this paper forecasts China＇s total population and structure changes from 2010 to 2030. Firstly, using the existing data this paper compiles China＇s 2000-2009 demographic input-output sequence tables. Then, using demo- graphic input-output model and some methods of econometrics, this paper computes China＇s total population and the number of each age group from 2010 to 2030. Finally, this paper analyzes the changes of total population and population structure. It can be seen that using input-output technology to research population issues is not only a new research direction of input-output technology but also a new way to study population issues.