住房保障与消费的联动效应——基于STR非线性模型的实证分析

On Joint Effect of Housing Security and Consumption——STR Based Nonlinear Empirical Analysis

社会的可持续发展主要依靠完善的社会保障体系,而保障性住房的供给则是这个体系的重要组成部分之一。扩大内需,促进居民消费则可以进一步推进国民经济的发展。采用STR非线性模型对我国部分省市的保障房供给对房价的财富效应的影响,并进一步影响居民的消费行为进行了研究。研究结果表明:保障性住房的供给量变化将会使得房地产市场的财富效应发生V型的变化,存在着正向与负向的财富效应。因此,为了充分促进消费以刺激经济的良性发展同时保持社会的稳定和谐发展,我国政府应该完善保障性住房建设的投资建设机制,维持商品房建设和保障性住房建设的合理比例。

The social sustainability rests largely on a complete social security supply is the important component of the system. At the same time, boosting system, and an affordable housing domestic demand can further carry forward the development of national economy. This paper, based on STR nonlinear empirical analysis, studied the wealth effect on the housing prices as well as the further effect on the residents＇ consumption behaviors which could be brought about by supplying the guaranteed housing in some provinces and cities. The results show that： the change of the quantity of low-income housing supply will cause the wealth effect of the real estate market to convert into a V shape with the positive and negative wealth effect. Therefore, in order to largely boost consumption and stimulate the economic growth while ensuring the social stability and harmonious development, our government should perfect the low-income housing investment mechanism, maintain a reasonable proportion between the construction of commercial housing and that of the low-income housing.