基于网络分析法的工程项目投标风险模糊分析

Fuzzy Risk Assessment of Construction Project Bidding Based on Analytic Network Process Method

针对施工单位如何在投标阶段有效地分析工程项目的风险问题,提出基于网络分析法的风险评价模型。首先介绍工程量清单模式下项目投标风险来源,然后通过风险辨识找出主要风险因素。充分考虑风险因素间的相关性,引入网络分析法(ANP)进行赋权,进一步建立拟投项目对所有风险因素的模糊隶属矩阵,从而有效评估出拟投标项目的风险大小。最后以某工程项目进行实例分析,结果表明该评价模型不但能有效满足投标决策,还可为将来的风险管理提供基础数据。

According to the problem of how to analyze project risk effectively in bidding stage for contractors, a new model with analytic network process method is proposed. Firstly, this paper introduces the risk - emergence resources with the BQ model policy. Then, the main risk factors have been identified, and considering about the relationship among them, all weights are given with analytic network process （ANP）. Secondly, all risk factors ＂fuzzy matrix subjection to evaluation ranks has been founded. Thirdly, the risk evaluation results have been worked out with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, a certain construction project is taken as an example to prove that this evaluation model can not only effectively satisfy the bidding decision - making but also can provide basic data for the future risk management of site construction.