兵团城镇化与工业化协调发展实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Coordination Development between Urbanization and Industrialization in XPCC

该文通过选取反映城镇化与工业化发展状况的16项指标因子,构建反映城镇化与工业化协调度的评价指标体系,运用协调度评价模型,从动态和静态两个角度分析了兵团城镇化与工业化的综合效益、整体协同发展水平以及协调度,并对兵团"十二五"期间城镇化与工业化的协调程度进行了预测。研究发现,2005-2010年,兵团城镇化与工业化发展的协调度总体呈上升趋势,但仍处于较低的协调等级;协调类型由早期的城镇化滞后逐渐转化为工业化滞后。同时,兵团各个师的城镇化与工业化整体协同发展水平和协调程度也存在较大差异。由预测结果可知,"十二五"期间,城镇化与工业化的协调程度由弱协调状态上升到较协调状态。

By choosing 16 indicators which reflect the urbanization and industrialization development, this paper constructs a system of evaluation indexes to measure coordination degree. The paper uses model of coordination evaluation to analyze the comprehensive benefit of urbanization and industrialization,the o- verall coordination development and coordination degree in XPCC from both dynamic and static angles. Finally, the paper forecasts the coordination degree between urbanization and industrialization during the 12th Five-Year Plan. The study finds that the coordination degree between urbanization and industrializa- tion is increasing from 2005 to 2010, but still at a low Coordination level, and the coordination type is shifting from urbanization backwardness to industrialization backwardness. Simultaneously, the overall coordination development level and coordination degree are also significantly different among the differ- ent divisions of XPCC. By the prediction results,the coordination degree of urbanization and industriali- zation is rising from weak coordination to strong coordination during the 12th Five-Year Plan.