人民币汇率与中美贸易的相关关系探析

Analysis of Correlation between Exchange Rate of RMB and China-US Trade

对于人民币汇率升值问题,许多学者已经进行过深入且透彻的分析,但多数都是基于绝对数据进行探讨。以1994年汇改以来的人民币汇率数据以及中美贸易历年差额数据为依据,采用变动率这一相对数,实证分析了人民币汇率变动和中美贸易差额变动的相关关系,发现人民币的升值并没有带来中美贸易顺差的相应变动,因此中国应积极应对人民币升值、国际贸易争端等问题。

The author points out in the paper that although economists and scholars have explored thoroughly on the exchange rate of RMB recent years, most of previous researches were based on absolute data. In this research, the author analyzes the change rate of RMB value since the reform of exchange rate in 1994 and that of the volume of trade between China and USA all these years. The data analysis shows that the appreciation of RMB didn＇t lead to the change of trade surplus with USA. Thus, it is concluded that Chinese government should be positive in response to ap- preciation of RMB and international trade dispute.