基于“哑铃”模型的天然气产业链分析及升级建议

Analysis of and upgrading measures for natural gas industry chain based on the "dumbbell" model

随着天然气的大量普及和广泛使用,我国天然气产业链上中下游发展的不协调问题逐步凸显。为促进天然气产业的进步和升级,需要分析天然气产业链的发展历史和协调发展机制。为此,在首次建立天然气产业链"哑铃"模型的基础上,利用该模型分析了天然气产业链上、中、下游往期的发展情况和当前天然气产业链不协调发展的主要矛盾,并根据经济学的基本理论,提出了以理顺天然气销售价格、降低下游非理性需求量,进而促进上中游的理性发展为关键措施来解决天然气产业链的不协调发展的建议;同时根据产业升级的基本概念,利用该模型分析确定了天然气产业链的进步和升级措施:依靠技术进步和管理创新及经济政策法规的调整,分别促进天然气产业链上中下游的发展,进而推动天然气产业的整体进步和升级。这些建议及措施能够有效地指导当前和未来天然气产业的发展。

Natural gas is a clean, high calorific value, multi-component gas mixture and can effectively promote China＇s economic, so cial and environmental improvement. With the widespread use of natural gas, the development of Chings natural gas industry chain is presenting its uncoordinated performance seriously, so efforts need to be made on the analysis of the history of the development of the natural gas industry chain and understanding of the mechanism of its coordinated development thus to promote its progress and upgrading. On the basis of developing a ＂dumbbell＂ model, a discussion is made of how it was developing in the upstream, middle stream, and downstream of this industry chain in prior periods and what the principal contradiction of the uncoordinated development is in this chain. Then, according to the basic theory of economics, some countermeasures are presented to solve this phenomenon of incoordination such as rationalizing the gas sale prices, reducing the unnecessary demand of downstream users, and boosting the ra- tional development of the upstream. At the same time, according to the basic concept of industrial upgrading, the ＂dumbbell＂ model is used to analyze the progress of the natural gas industry chain as well as its upgrading measures, which are considered to rely on technological progress, management innovation, economic policies, and regulations adjustment.