基于灰色马尔可夫修正模型的城市月用电需求预测

The forecasting of monthly electricity demand in city based on grey markov model

传统的灰色预测模型只能反映月用电量的总体变化趋势,不能反映月用电量随季节的波动特征。为此,基于马尔可夫理论提出了灰色马尔可夫修正预测模型,引入了马尔可夫修正系数,并在模型中加入等维信息,研究了同时考虑种趋势的城市月用电需求的预测问题。算例表明,与传统的灰色预测方法相比,马尔可夫修正模型较好地提高了预测的精度。

The traditional gray model only reflects lhe general trend of the rtionthlv electricilv den（and llili failing In reflect the characteristics of tile mnnthlv ellerr（city dmand with sasonal fluctuation. The grey markov modified modl based on the makov theory is proposed, the markov correction cn,fficient is introduced and is added the dimension inrmalioo in the model. The problemof the forecasting of monthly with double trends is researehed in this paprTh,paring with the traditional grey melhods.