商务旅游城市发展的系统动力学仿真研究——以苏州工业园区为例

Simulation of dynamic development of a business tourism city——A case study of Suzhou Industrial Park

商务旅游在世界范围内呈快速发展趋势,我国也将商务旅游列为专项旅游重点发展。商务旅游城市是推动商务旅游发展的重要基石,加快商务旅游城市建设与发展成为当前旅游研究热点。从商务旅游城市角度出发,运用系统动力学理论,选取人口、经济、商务旅游、环境以及科技等影响商务旅游城市发展因子,构建商务旅游城市发展系统动力模型,并对苏州工业园区2006-2020年商务旅游城市动态发展趋势进行模拟评价。结果表明:商务旅游城市发展动力系统紧密联系,各子系统在仿真期间保持增长的发展态势,但不同子系统增长幅度有所差异;各子系统内部因子的发展趋势和增长幅度具有相似性和差异性。

Business tourism is in a trend of worldwide fast-paced development, and it has been listed as one of the key specialty tourisms to develop in China. Business destinations are the important cornerstones for the de- velopment of business tourism; construction and development of business destinations has become a hot re- search topic. In this article, based on system dynamics theory, we selected the impact factors such as population, economy, business tourism, environment and technology, and created a system dynamic model for the develop- ment of a business destination city. Taking Suzhou Industrial Park as a case study, we simulated and evaluated the trend of its dynamic development from 2006 to 2020.The results indicated that the dynamic development of a business tourism city is a very interactive system from within. Each subsystem maintains a growth momentum during the time period of simulation, but the growth rate varies in different subsystems. The trends and growth rates of the internal factors in each subsystem have similarities and differences.