清代辽东旗人社会中的男性失婚问题研究——基于中国多世代人口数据库—辽宁部分(CMGPD-LN)

A Study of Males' Out-of-Marriage in Bannerman Society of East Liaoning in Qing Dynasty:Based on CMGPD-LN

当前我国人口性别结构长期失衡的状况加剧了男性婚姻挤压,贫困地区农村男性大龄未婚或终身不婚问题突出。研究历史能够对现实问题提供借鉴,利用中国多世代人口数据库—辽宁部分,运用离散时间事件史分析技术和logit回归模型,研究了1749～1909年清代辽东旗人社会中的男性失婚问题。研究发现:超过20%的30岁及以上男性仍未结婚,大约15%的男性终身不婚;包括个体、家庭、亲属关系和地区在内的微观、中观和宏观因素共同决定了男性的婚姻状态,年龄越大、有残疾、无职位的男性未婚的机会比率更大,父母一方或双方在世、父亲或叔伯有职位的男性未婚的机会比率更低;微观、中观和宏观因素同样决定了未婚男性的居住模式,年龄越大、有残疾、父母不在世的男性独住的机会比率越大,叔伯有职位的男性独住的机会比率越小,分家是导致未婚男性独住的重要事件。

Sex unbalance existed for a very long time and this condition makes male marriage squeeze worse, especially for males lived in poor rural area. History study can be used to analysis present problems. Use CMGPD-LN and apply both discrete event history analysis and logistic regression analysis to study males＇ out-of-marriage in Bannerman society of East Liaoning in the period of 1749 - 1909. The results show that ： 1st, over 20% males aged over 30 years old did not married and 15% males never married; 2nd, factors in micro, meso and macro level, including individual characteristics, parents＇ characteristics, kinship relations and region, have significant 3th , effect on males＇ out-of-marriage; beside factors in micro, meso and macro level, household division has significant influence on unmarried males＇ living arrangements.