外部冲击对国内农产品价格波动影响分析

Outside Shock,Structural Change and Domestic Agricultural Product Price Volatility

在我国农产品持续市场化改革背景下,尤其是2001年加入世界贸易组织,进口关税和非关税壁垒不断削减、农产品进口量不断增加、农产品期货市场的建立和完善导致国内外农产品市场的联系日益紧密。全球农产品价格在2006-2008年上半年大幅上涨,大豆、玉米、小麦期货价格均创30年来新高;同期在国内,大豆、豆粕价格接近翻番,豆油价格涨幅达76%。本文基于2005.1-2010.11的月度数据,采用回归模型考察国际农产品价格、石油价格、全世界流动性(货币供应量)和美元/人民币汇率等外部因素对国内农产品价格的整体影响。在控制其它变量不变的情况下,研究表明国际农产品价格对我国农产品价格的影响并不显著,而石油价格每上升1%将带动国内农产品价格整体上升0.43%;国际流动性指数上升1%,国内农产品价格相应地上升0.252%;当期人民币升值1%将使国内农产品价格降低3.497%,滞后一期的人民币升值1%仅使国内农产品价格降低1.234%。

On the background of continuing market reform, especially accession into WTO in 2001, reduction of import duty and non-tariff trade barrier, increase of import of agricultural commodity, construction and completion of future market, agricultural product market become more and more interrelated. Based on monthly data from Jan 2005 to Nov. 2010, the paper establishes regression model to research the impact of international agricultural product price, oil price, global liquidity （money supply） and U.S- RMB exchange rate on domestic agricultural product price. The research indicates that international agricultural product price does not have an obvious effect on domestic agricultural product. However, 1% increase of oil price will increase domestic agricultural product price by 0.43%. One percent increase of global liquidity index will correspondingly increase domestic agricultural product price by 2.252% and 1% rise of current and lagged one period U.S-RMB exchange rate will reduce domestic agricultural product price respectively by 3.497% and 1.234%.