矿产资源可持续发展五大支持系统的灰色综合评估研究

The Grey Comprehensive Evaluation of Five Major Supported Systems on the Sustainable Development Mineral Resources

矿产资源作为不可再生资源之一,其日趋增长的消耗态势引发了无数专家学者对矿产资源可持续发展的探讨。基于牛文元的五大支持系统论,通过层次分析法,可构建矿产资源可持续发展指标体系,并以此为基础,建立矿产资源可持续发展五大支持系统灰色综合评估模型。以我国2003年～2010年的统计数据为样本,通过对各个系统的可持续发展程度进行分层评价和判断,结果表明,我国矿产资源、社会和人力支持系统的可持续发展度较高,向"好"的方向不断变化;而生存和环境支持系统的可持续发展程度较低,并呈现出逐渐恶化的趋势,应引起足够重视并采取相应对策。

The rising consumption trend of Mineral resources, kind of the non-renewable resources, has led to the frequent and drastic discussions about their sustainable development among experts and scholars. Using the five supported systems theory of Niu Wenyuan, we build an index system of sustainable development on mineral resources by AHP, which is the basis of the establishment of the gray integrated assessment models on the sustainable development of mineral resources. Using the Chinese statistical data of year from 2003 to 2010 as the sample, evaluating and estimating the degree of the sustainable development of every system, we can find the results demonstrate that the high degree of the sustainable development of the mineral resources, social and manpower supported system and their continuously good development; nevertheless, the degree of survival and environmental supported systems is relatively low, and it presents a gradually worsening trend; therefore, we should pay a lot attention to it and take corresponding action.