基于Fuzzy AHP的煤矿企业安全危机评估与预警

Security-crisis assessment and early warning for coal mining enterprise based on Fuzzy AHP

从人的行为、物质、环境三维视角,分析了导致安全事故的主要原因,构建了煤矿企业安全危机预警评价指标体系.基于评价指标具有不确定性、随机性和模糊性等特点,采用模糊层次分析法(Fuzzy AHP)建立了煤矿企业安全危机模糊综合评价模型.模型中采用层次分析法确定各参数指标的权重,采用专家打分法确定安全危机因素评判模糊集,采用模糊综合评价法,探讨了多层次下危机等级的确定方法,由此可对煤矿企业进行安全危机评估与预警.以湖南省某煤矿企业为例进行了实证分析,结果表明该煤矿企业安全的总体状况较好.该理论与方法可为煤矿企业安全防范与预警提供一种有效途径.

From three angles of human behavior, substance and environment, the main reasons to lead to security accidents of coal mining enterprise were alalyzed, and the index system of security - crisis assessment and early warning for coal mining enterprise was constructed. Because of uncertainty, randomicity and fuzzification for the evaluating index, the model of fuzzy comprehensive assessment of coal mining enterprise security - crisis was established using Fuzzy AHP. In this model, the weight of each parameter index was determined by employing AHP, and the fuzzy set of the factors of security - crisis was assessed by expertise method, the method of determing security - crisis rank under multi - hierarchy was discussed using model of fuzzy comprehensive assessment. The model constructed was used for security -crisis assessment and early warning for coal mining enterprise. Taking a coal mining enterprise of Hunan Province for example, the empirical study was made by using this model. The result shows that the general status of this coal mining enterprise security is the better. This theory and method provide an effective way for security protection and early warning of coal mining enterprises.