过度自信研究的发展历程

On the History of Overconfidence

过度自信是指在决策判断过程中,个体过分相信自己判断的一种认知偏差。过度自信研究从20世纪50年代末开始,迄今已经历了半个世纪.到20世纪末,早期的过度自信研究主要特点是关注人们的主观感受和比较过程的主观性,这一时期出现了两个重要理论——自我提升理论和权重差异理论.进入21世纪,伴随着科技的进步,过度自信研究进入新的阶段,其研究更加关注客观环境和信息的影响,而进化心理学的发展也为过度自信研究提供了新的视角.过度自信研究的发展历程可能是时代精神影响心理学研究的一个缩影.

Overconfidence is a cognitive bias in which individuals have too much confidence in estimating the accuracy of their own judgment in the decision - making process. Since 1960s, researchers have carried out many studies on overconfidence. By the end of the 20thcentury, the early research on overconfidence has been mainly concerned about individual~ subjective feelings and subjectivity of comparison processes. Self - enhancement theory and differential weighting theor）T, the two main theories of o- verconfidence, have been proposed during the period. At the beginning of 21thcentury, overconfidence studies enter a new stage with the progress of science and technology. These studies are more focused on the influence of the objective environment and in- formation. The development of evolutionary psychology may contribute a new perspective to overconfidence study. The develop- tnent process of overconfidence research may be a microcosm that the zeitgeist has influenced psychological study.