大型体育赛事中群体性事件的预警机制

The Early Warning Mechanism of Mass Incidents in Major Sports Events

分析大型体育赛事中群体性事件参与者行为的时间性、空间性、人为和社会因素,建立大型体育赛事中群体性事件预警指标体系。根据大型体育赛事总体风险理论模型,采用层次分析法和德尔菲法,将大型体育赛事中的群体性事件预警指标体系划分为4个子模块系统和29个三级具体指标。利用重点指标阈值模型和宏观预警模型对大型体育赛事中的群体性事件进行预警管理。

This paper analyzes the 4 major factors which influence the participants＇ behavior in mass incidents of major sports events, that is, time, space, man-made factors and social factors, and builds the early warning index system of mass incidents in major sports events. The paper also uses the theory model of overall risk in major sports events, with the methods of hierarchy analysis and Delphi, to divide the index system into 4 sub-module systems and 29 third-grade specific indicators. The key index threshold model and macro-warning model are used to manage the early warning of mass incidents in major sports events.