山东省疟疾高发地区发病率与气象因子的多元逐步回归分析

Multiple stepwise regression analysis on relationship between malaria incidence and meteorological parameters in malarious area in Shandong Province

目的建立气象因子与疟疾发病率之间的回归方程,探索山东省疟疾高发地区气象因子与疟疾流行之间的关系,为控制山东高疟区疫情,实现消除疟疾目标,提供科学依据。方法收集2006-2009年山东高疟区菏泽市月疟疾发病率资料和月平均气温、月降水量、月雨日数和月平均相对湿度气象资料,应用Spearman等级相关分析气象因子与疟疾发病率之间的相关关系,用多元逐步回归建立气象因子与发病率回归方程。结果月雨日数、月降雨量和月平均气温与疟疾发病率有较高的正相关。应用多元逐步回归分析得到的回归方程为:Y'=1.252 6+0.284 4D01+0.018 75P01,R2=0.614 6(D01,P01分别表示当前月及之前1月的平均雨日数和平均降雨量)。结论气象因素能够影响疟疾的流行,尤其雨日数和降雨量,可以依据拟合方程预测山东高疟区疟疾流行趋势。

Analysis of the association between malaria incidence and meteorological parameters through the regression e- quations was conducted to search for the control measures. Monthly malaria cases and meteorological parameters including monthly mean temperature, precipitation, rainfall days and relative humidity from 2006 to 2009 were collected in Heze City, Shandong Province. Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the correlation between malaria incidence and meteorological parameters and the multiple stepwise regression was used to analyze their relationships. Results showed that malaria incidence was positively relative to rainfall days, precipitation, and monthly mean temperature. Regression equation Y＇ = 1. 252 6 ＋ 0. 284 4D01 ＋0. 0187 5 P01 , R2 =0. 614 6 （D01 was the average rainfall days of the present month and its previous one month, and P01 was the average precipitation）. It＇s suggested that the meteorological parameters, especially the rainfall days and pre- cipitation, could affect the epidemic of malaria, and the epidemic trend of malaria incidence could be predicted by the regression equation in Heze City.